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Ceturtdiena 19.10.2017 | Name days: Drosma, Drosmis, Elīna
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11th Saeima: outlook for winner – loss of everything

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RU The main intrigue around the 11th Saeima election results is how the Latvian parliament will be divided among three, out of four, candidates to form the ruling coalition, according to BNN analysts opinion to be published in “The king is dead. Long live the king!” on BNN-news.com, BNN.lv and BNN-news.ru.

To find out who won the elections after all, we must first define the losers. The first one of them is Ainars Slesers from Slesers Reform Party LPP/LC. Having spent 282.5 thousand lats on the pre-election campaign, Slesers and his fellow party members failed to open the door to the 11th Saeima. They did not even cross the 5% threshold.

The second most obvious loser is Ventspils Mayor Aivars Lembergs behind Greens and Farmers Union. The party’s 22 seats in the last Saeima convocation have now dropped to 13. It is 40.9% less. The main reason for Slesers and Lembergs’ defeat is that their policies overwhelm in self-praise, which scares away the Latvian mentality. Similarly, the blame is also on them supporting the fight, initiated by ex-president Valdis Zatlers, against the state power being used in the interests of Lembergs, Slesers and finaly-to-leave-politics Andris Skele.

Paradoxical enough, but the first of the winners is the national association All for Latvia!-TB/LNNK. They conducted the most cost-effective campaign, but still managed to increase the representation in the Saeima by 75%. The association made use of rhetoric to boost radical views of the society in their favour. According to the democratic European model, it is acceptable that the radical part takes up 7-9%, while AL-TB/LNNK gathered 14% of votes.

Unity’s key to success lies in the fact that it lead the country out of the crisis and introduced a severe anti-social policy, at the same time still maintaining power twice in a year’s time. No party in history has managed to do that.

BNN analysts point out that neither problems in establishing Zatlers Reform Party, nor those surrounding professionalism of their per-election campaign prevented the party from gaining the second biggest representation in the Saeima. The “golden share” is now in the hands of Valdis Zatlers.

The value of this “share” lies in the fact that exactly ZRP will have the final say in the formation of a parliamentary majority despite it is HC with the largest number of seats – 31. Aspiration to once and for all get real executive force is making HC abandon its standpoint on various matters. The first of the abandoned lines – HC leader Nils Ushakov’s de facto recognition Latvia’s occupation by the Soviet Union. This fully contradicts a book by Janis Urbanovich, head of HC faction, published in the eve of the elections. Documents described there show that there has never actually been any de jure occupation.

Moreover, Unity leader Solvita Aboltina has already marked “red lines” in cooperation with HC. These are lines Latvian parties cannot think of crossing even for the sake of forming a broad coalition government. They include Unity’s different view on the economic development and inability to accept HC’s proposed moratorium on historical and national issues. Apart from that, Unity is against HC taking the lead in the new government.

This puts President Andris Berzins before a difficult choice. Is is going to be coalition of HC + ZRP + Unity or ZRP + Unity + AL-TB/LNNK? If the president refuses the first option, it might be misunderstood by the “old” European democracies. If he refuses the second version, the titular nation might condemn the move.

However, practice shows that when Latvia is doing something wrong, it is only threatened with a finger – as accepted in democratic countries. The Latvian political elite has already learnt not to notice such mild threats. But when the president is not pleasing the elite, problems pile on him like a snowball.

BNN believes that before actual talks on coalition formation, chances of ZRP, Unity and AL-TB/LNNK to make up a majority are more preferable.

BNN will publish full text of the article “The king is dead. Long live the king!” on September 19.


Leave a reply

  1. Lita says:

    Interesting prospects.. I prefer zrp, unity and the national association.

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. Rosalinda says:

    I didn’t know where to find this info then kobaom it was here.

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  3. Marsue says:

    Of the panoply of wsebtie I’ve pored over this has the most veracity.

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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