bnn.lv Latviski   bnn-news.com English   bnn-news.ru По-русски
Saturday 23.06.2018 | Name days: Līga
LatviaLatvia

11th Saeima: outlook for winner – loss of everything

FaceBook
Twitter
Draugiem
print
(+2 rating, 2 votes)

Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RU The main intrigue around the 11th Saeima election results is how the Latvian parliament will be divided among three, out of four, candidates to form the ruling coalition, according to BNN analysts opinion to be published in “The king is dead. Long live the king!” on BNN-news.com, BNN.lv and BNN-news.ru.

To find out who won the elections after all, we must first define the losers. The first one of them is Ainars Slesers from Slesers Reform Party LPP/LC. Having spent 282.5 thousand lats on the pre-election campaign, Slesers and his fellow party members failed to open the door to the 11th Saeima. They did not even cross the 5% threshold.

The second most obvious loser is Ventspils Mayor Aivars Lembergs behind Greens and Farmers Union. The party’s 22 seats in the last Saeima convocation have now dropped to 13. It is 40.9% less. The main reason for Slesers and Lembergs’ defeat is that their policies overwhelm in self-praise, which scares away the Latvian mentality. Similarly, the blame is also on them supporting the fight, initiated by ex-president Valdis Zatlers, against the state power being used in the interests of Lembergs, Slesers and finaly-to-leave-politics Andris Skele.

Paradoxical enough, but the first of the winners is the national association All for Latvia!-TB/LNNK. They conducted the most cost-effective campaign, but still managed to increase the representation in the Saeima by 75%. The association made use of rhetoric to boost radical views of the society in their favour. According to the democratic European model, it is acceptable that the radical part takes up 7-9%, while AL-TB/LNNK gathered 14% of votes.

Unity’s key to success lies in the fact that it lead the country out of the crisis and introduced a severe anti-social policy, at the same time still maintaining power twice in a year’s time. No party in history has managed to do that.

BNN analysts point out that neither problems in establishing Zatlers Reform Party, nor those surrounding professionalism of their per-election campaign prevented the party from gaining the second biggest representation in the Saeima. The “golden share” is now in the hands of Valdis Zatlers.

The value of this “share” lies in the fact that exactly ZRP will have the final say in the formation of a parliamentary majority despite it is HC with the largest number of seats – 31. Aspiration to once and for all get real executive force is making HC abandon its standpoint on various matters. The first of the abandoned lines – HC leader Nils Ushakov’s de facto recognition Latvia’s occupation by the Soviet Union. This fully contradicts a book by Janis Urbanovich, head of HC faction, published in the eve of the elections. Documents described there show that there has never actually been any de jure occupation.

Moreover, Unity leader Solvita Aboltina has already marked “red lines” in cooperation with HC. These are lines Latvian parties cannot think of crossing even for the sake of forming a broad coalition government. They include Unity’s different view on the economic development and inability to accept HC’s proposed moratorium on historical and national issues. Apart from that, Unity is against HC taking the lead in the new government.

This puts President Andris Berzins before a difficult choice. Is is going to be coalition of HC + ZRP + Unity or ZRP + Unity + AL-TB/LNNK? If the president refuses the first option, it might be misunderstood by the “old” European democracies. If he refuses the second version, the titular nation might condemn the move.

However, practice shows that when Latvia is doing something wrong, it is only threatened with a finger – as accepted in democratic countries. The Latvian political elite has already learnt not to notice such mild threats. But when the president is not pleasing the elite, problems pile on him like a snowball.

BNN believes that before actual talks on coalition formation, chances of ZRP, Unity and AL-TB/LNNK to make up a majority are more preferable.

BNN will publish full text of the article “The king is dead. Long live the king!” on September 19.


Leave a reply

  1. Lita says:

    Interesting prospects.. I prefer zrp, unity and the national association.

  2. Rosalinda says:

    I didn’t know where to find this info then kobaom it was here.

  3. Marsue says:

    Of the panoply of wsebtie I’ve pored over this has the most veracity.

SRS uncovers numerous violations more than half of inspected companies

State Revenue Service’s Tax Control Office performed a total of 305 thematic inspections of employers in Latvia in Q1 2018. Authorities recorded violations in 171 inspections, according to information from SRS.

Third level pension plan deposit volumes reach new record value

Residents’ interest for pension savings remains high. The volume of deposits made to private pension funds in the first three months of 2018 has reached a new historic peak: a total of EUR 16.5 million has been paid to 3rd level pension accounts, which is 11.6% more when compared to the same period of 2017, as reported by Finance and Capital Market Commission.

Petrol station network in Latvia caught performing fraudulent activities with diesel fuel

State Revenue Service’s Tax and Customs Police have uncovered and put an end to a fraudulent scheme with diesel fuel performed by some network of petrol stations in Latvia, as confirmed by the service.

Kaimiņš: I believe CPCB is performing a political order

In the evening of Thursday, 21 June, Corruption Prevention and Combating Bureau released three people previously detained as part of a criminal process regarding possible illegal funding of KPV LV party – Saeima deputy Artuss Kaimiņš, his colleague Atis Zakatistovs, and businessman Viesturs Tamužs.

Latvia’s parliament conceptually supports new sanction regulations

On Thursday, 21 June, Saeima supported in the final reading amendments to the Law on International Sanctions and National Sanctions of the Republic of Latvia that are meant to improve sanction regime regulations to ensure efficient application of national and international sanctions, as reported by Saeima press-service.

Storm in Tallinn floods streets, cuts Croatia-Argentina match short on TV

A rain storm has hit northern Estonia on Thursday, flooding some streets in the capital Tallinn, damaged buildings and badly affected the broadcast of an interesting World Cup game.

American banks tested for financial stress show positive results

The U.S. has performed banking stress tests and found that the 35 largest banks operating in the country have enough funds on hand to sail safely through a severe financial crisis.

Saeima fires judge for coming to work in a drunken state

On Thursday, 21 June, Latvia’s parliament supported the proposal to dismiss Rezekne Court judge Arvis Garais from his post. 71 deputies voted in favour, no one abstained and no one voted against.

UK to have three requirements to EU citizens willing to remain in UK

For citizens of the European Union willing to continue living in the UK after the country leaves the bloc, they will have to submit applications and answer three key questions over the internet, according to the country's interior minister.

Weather in Latvia to be rainy and cool during Ligo; next week’s weather to be dry and hot

Weather at the end of the week in Latvia will be dictated by a cyclone. Because of that, there will be instances of rain on Ligo. Weather is expected to improve next week, however, according to Latvia’s State Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

Lithuania’s blood plasma corruption scandal extends to Latvia

The former head of Lithuania‘s National Blood Centre, suspected of corruption and involvement in unlicenced activity, received more bad news this week from Latvia, where investigators of the Lithuanian Special Investigation Service had questioned the Latvian Health minister, Anda Čakša.

Administrative burden to be reduced for foreign students and researchers

The administrative burden will be reduced for foreign students and researchers, as well as all education and research institutions hosting them. This is provided by the amendments to the Immigration Law approved by the Saeima in the third reading on Thursday, 21 June.

Latvian Economy Minister endures no-confidence vote

Saeima declined opposition deputies’ request for dismissal of Economy Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

Swedbank economist becomes new member of Bank of Latvia Council

On Thursday, 21 June, Latvia’s Saeima approved Mārtiņš Kazāks in his new post as member of Bank of Latvia Council, as confirmed by Saeima’s press-service.

Pope Francis’ visit to Latvia will be a national holiday

Latvia’s parliament has approved in the final reading a law that makes 24 September – the day Pope Francis plans to visit Latvia – a national holiday.

ICT specialist numbers in Latvia are below Europe’s average level

In Latvia, information and communication technology specialists form only 2.2% of all employed people in the country, which is considerably below the average level in the European Union – 3.7%. Romania and Greece are the only two EU member states in which the number of ICT specialists is below Latvia’s, according to European Commission’s DESI index.

Hungary adopts prison sentence for helping migrants

Hungarian National Assembly has passed a set of laws criminalising with prison terms some help provided to illegal immigrants by non-governmental organisations.

Harmony plans turning to Constitutional Court to prevent transition to Latvian language in schools

«Why should this reform stay unrealized? It is because schools are not prepared for cardinal changes coming from dozens of other reforms that have already shocked the country’s entire general education system,» says chairman of National Minority School Parents Forum and member of Harmony’s work group in Konstantīns Čekušins.

Deputies detained in KPV LV criminal case not declared suspects yet

Saeima deputy Artuss Kaimiņš and businessman Viesturs Tamužs detained in the criminal process regarding possibly illegal funding of KPV LV party have not yet been declared suspects. Both are currently in police custody. It is likely Kaimiņš will be released later today, 21 June.

Production of mines and grenades planned in Estonia

As the Estonian parliament has adopted new rules on military arms and ammunition production in the country, local defence firm Eesti Arsenal has voiced its plan to build a factory in Estonia to make military explosives.

Total tax debts in Latvia reached EUR 1.224 billion in June

At the beginning of June, total tax debts in Latvia, including topical, halted debts and extended repayment terms were equal to EUR 1.233 billion, which is 0.6% less compared to May, as reported by State Revenue Service.

Switch off internet nationwide during exams – Algerian approach

In an attempt to prevent cheating during secondary school exams, the north African nation Algeria, has turned off internet in its whole territory.

Control Service proposes kicking out shell companies as intensely as offshore companies

Shell companies in Latvia should be combated with the same intensity once shown to offshore companies, says chief of Anti-Money Laundering Service Ilze Znotiņa.

EU imposes tariffs on blue jeans, motorcycles and other U.S. export goods

The European Union will introduce retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports on Friday, EU Trade Commissioner has stated a top official has stated in the bloc's reaction to Washington imposing steep duties on steel and aluminium earlier in June.

Latvia’s Saeima proposes improving job-combining rules for state officials

On Wednesday, 20 June, Latvian parliament’s Public Administration and Local Government Committee decided to submit for review amendments to the Law on Prevention of Conflict of Interest in Activities of Public Officials.

Newest comments