bnn.lv Latviski   bnn-news.com English   bnn-news.ru По-русски
Saturday 23.06.2018 | Name days: Līga

Economist: Q3 in financial markets to continue in shadow of Brexit

FaceBook
Twitter
Draugiem
print
(+1 rating, 1 votes)

Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RU

In financial markets, uncertainty looms large over the third quarter of 2016 and beyond, but if reforms and improvements are put in place, the risks also could bring positive change, Saxo Bank economist predicted.

Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist and CIO, evaluated on July 12: «Personally, I am not too concerned about the Brexit as prior crises have taught me that these types of events often leads to real changes, and sometimes real reforms. Following the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992, UK growth and employment rose significantly. The good news is that the next six to 12 months will see a move towards the much needed mandate for change. The bad news is that it will come with more volatility and more uncertainty.»

Set against this context, Saxo’s outlook for major asset classes in Q3 is as follows:

EU macro – Migrant crisis fissure

Immigration is the most important risk facing the European Union since the sovereign debt crisis and also the most overlooked. As such and post-Brexit, Europe appears more divided than ever. Mismanagement of migrant policy and economic sluggishness have promoted an anti-elite groundswell across the continent.

The result of the presidential election in Austria, where an extreme right-wing candidate almost won, and the unexpected outcome of the UK referendum represent two grave warnings to Brussels – a solution must be found that unites the periphery and the core, putting an end to the bloc’s timid reform regime of recent years.

Forex – could get difficult

The spectre of the Brexit vote will loom large for some time, with sterling weakness persisting in the wake of the referendum (though likely with waning momentum). We would still forecast, however, the EURGBP pair to peak in Q3 ahead of other key GBP pairs around the longer term questions for Europe, now that sterling has been severely discounted.

Perhaps weighing further on market sentiment, the Fed also seems unlikely to provide support beyond its current inaction and may not believe that monetary policy is the answer to new recession risks. In short summary, the U.S. dollar appears to be the best safe haven in the coming months.

Bonds – low yields, long time

Post-Brexit, global yields once again sank to all-time lows, and with U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen finally capitulating to dovishness, the consensus expectation is very low yields for a very long time. Yet beneath the gloomy economic headlines, there are signs that sentiment is improving in many parts of the economy.

Some of the major risk factors that have affected markets over the past six months have either played out or are largely irrelevant for now, fears around EM instability have subsided and the ECB has begun looking at unwinding QE. In the likely event of a gradual improvement in the global economic outlook, we expect core yields, especially European core yields, to rise swiftly.

Equities – critical quarter

Based on the current trajectory of the global economy, we go into Q3 with a negative view on equities. Among the worst hit sectors, European banks will continue to suffer from a lack of confidence and renewed scrutiny on net interest margins as a result of negative rates, whilst UK equities will also face lower valuations – putting pressure on the FTSE 100.

With the Brexit vote’s impact hitting the financial system, confidence among businesses and consumers may deteriorate enough to edge the global economy closer to a standstill in Q4, which is why we’re looking at the next few months as the most crucial period since the euro crisis of 2012.

Commodities – second wind

The second quarter has bucked trends since 2014 and this year has been no exception after a bullish rally led by oil and gold lifted the whole commodity complex. As we enter Q3, growth prospects across some of the world’s major economies, including the U.S. and China, continue to be called into question and problems in Europe could lead to a knock-on effect in the global market.

With this in mind, coupled with the uncertainty triggered by the Brexit vote and the potential for further dollar strength, we’re anticipating limited upside above USD 50 (EUR 45) a barrel this quarter in crude oil.

Ref: 111.111.111.3503


Leave a reply

SRS uncovers numerous violations more than half of inspected companies

State Revenue Service’s Tax Control Office performed a total of 305 thematic inspections of employers in Latvia in Q1 2018. Authorities recorded violations in 171 inspections, according to information from SRS.

Third level pension plan deposit volumes reach new record value

Residents’ interest for pension savings remains high. The volume of deposits made to private pension funds in the first three months of 2018 has reached a new historic peak: a total of EUR 16.5 million has been paid to 3rd level pension accounts, which is 11.6% more when compared to the same period of 2017, as reported by Finance and Capital Market Commission.

Petrol station network in Latvia caught performing fraudulent activities with diesel fuel

State Revenue Service’s Tax and Customs Police have uncovered and put an end to a fraudulent scheme with diesel fuel performed by some network of petrol stations in Latvia, as confirmed by the service.

Kaimiņš: I believe CPCB is performing a political order

In the evening of Thursday, 21 June, Corruption Prevention and Combating Bureau released three people previously detained as part of a criminal process regarding possible illegal funding of KPV LV party – Saeima deputy Artuss Kaimiņš, his colleague Atis Zakatistovs, and businessman Viesturs Tamužs.

Latvia’s parliament conceptually supports new sanction regulations

On Thursday, 21 June, Saeima supported in the final reading amendments to the Law on International Sanctions and National Sanctions of the Republic of Latvia that are meant to improve sanction regime regulations to ensure efficient application of national and international sanctions, as reported by Saeima press-service.

Storm in Tallinn floods streets, cuts Croatia-Argentina match short on TV

A rain storm has hit northern Estonia on Thursday, flooding some streets in the capital Tallinn, damaged buildings and badly affected the broadcast of an interesting World Cup game.

American banks tested for financial stress show positive results

The U.S. has performed banking stress tests and found that the 35 largest banks operating in the country have enough funds on hand to sail safely through a severe financial crisis.

Saeima fires judge for coming to work in a drunken state

On Thursday, 21 June, Latvia’s parliament supported the proposal to dismiss Rezekne Court judge Arvis Garais from his post. 71 deputies voted in favour, no one abstained and no one voted against.

UK to have three requirements to EU citizens willing to remain in UK

For citizens of the European Union willing to continue living in the UK after the country leaves the bloc, they will have to submit applications and answer three key questions over the internet, according to the country's interior minister.

Weather in Latvia to be rainy and cool during Ligo; next week’s weather to be dry and hot

Weather at the end of the week in Latvia will be dictated by a cyclone. Because of that, there will be instances of rain on Ligo. Weather is expected to improve next week, however, according to Latvia’s State Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

Lithuania’s blood plasma corruption scandal extends to Latvia

The former head of Lithuania‘s National Blood Centre, suspected of corruption and involvement in unlicenced activity, received more bad news this week from Latvia, where investigators of the Lithuanian Special Investigation Service had questioned the Latvian Health minister, Anda Čakša.

Administrative burden to be reduced for foreign students and researchers

The administrative burden will be reduced for foreign students and researchers, as well as all education and research institutions hosting them. This is provided by the amendments to the Immigration Law approved by the Saeima in the third reading on Thursday, 21 June.

Latvian Economy Minister endures no-confidence vote

Saeima declined opposition deputies’ request for dismissal of Economy Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

Swedbank economist becomes new member of Bank of Latvia Council

On Thursday, 21 June, Latvia’s Saeima approved Mārtiņš Kazāks in his new post as member of Bank of Latvia Council, as confirmed by Saeima’s press-service.

Pope Francis’ visit to Latvia will be a national holiday

Latvia’s parliament has approved in the final reading a law that makes 24 September – the day Pope Francis plans to visit Latvia – a national holiday.

ICT specialist numbers in Latvia are below Europe’s average level

In Latvia, information and communication technology specialists form only 2.2% of all employed people in the country, which is considerably below the average level in the European Union – 3.7%. Romania and Greece are the only two EU member states in which the number of ICT specialists is below Latvia’s, according to European Commission’s DESI index.

Hungary adopts prison sentence for helping migrants

Hungarian National Assembly has passed a set of laws criminalising with prison terms some help provided to illegal immigrants by non-governmental organisations.

Harmony plans turning to Constitutional Court to prevent transition to Latvian language in schools

«Why should this reform stay unrealized? It is because schools are not prepared for cardinal changes coming from dozens of other reforms that have already shocked the country’s entire general education system,» says chairman of National Minority School Parents Forum and member of Harmony’s work group in Konstantīns Čekušins.

Deputies detained in KPV LV criminal case not declared suspects yet

Saeima deputy Artuss Kaimiņš and businessman Viesturs Tamužs detained in the criminal process regarding possibly illegal funding of KPV LV party have not yet been declared suspects. Both are currently in police custody. It is likely Kaimiņš will be released later today, 21 June.

Production of mines and grenades planned in Estonia

As the Estonian parliament has adopted new rules on military arms and ammunition production in the country, local defence firm Eesti Arsenal has voiced its plan to build a factory in Estonia to make military explosives.

Total tax debts in Latvia reached EUR 1.224 billion in June

At the beginning of June, total tax debts in Latvia, including topical, halted debts and extended repayment terms were equal to EUR 1.233 billion, which is 0.6% less compared to May, as reported by State Revenue Service.

Switch off internet nationwide during exams – Algerian approach

In an attempt to prevent cheating during secondary school exams, the north African nation Algeria, has turned off internet in its whole territory.

Control Service proposes kicking out shell companies as intensely as offshore companies

Shell companies in Latvia should be combated with the same intensity once shown to offshore companies, says chief of Anti-Money Laundering Service Ilze Znotiņa.

EU imposes tariffs on blue jeans, motorcycles and other U.S. export goods

The European Union will introduce retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports on Friday, EU Trade Commissioner has stated a top official has stated in the bloc's reaction to Washington imposing steep duties on steel and aluminium earlier in June.

Latvia’s Saeima proposes improving job-combining rules for state officials

On Wednesday, 20 June, Latvian parliament’s Public Administration and Local Government Committee decided to submit for review amendments to the Law on Prevention of Conflict of Interest in Activities of Public Officials.

Newest comments