bnn.lv Latviski   bnn-news.com English   bnn-news.ru По-русски
Wednesday 20.09.2017 | Name days: Marianna, Ginters, Guntra
LatviaLatvia

Expert: can Latvia’s economy eat what it bit off this year?

FaceBook
Twitter
Draugiem
print
(No Ratings Yet)

Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUExport markets’ growth is sustainable and its growth will continue this year. However, the upcoming elections in Europe could potentially ruin consumers’ mood in Latvia’s largest export destinations. In general, the country’s economy continues to grow, economic experts say.

BNN had previously reported that the value of export goods has grown 13.3% and the value of import goods has grown 18.5%.

DNB Bank’s economist Peteris Strautins says about January’s export: «This is the most rapid annual increase since April 2013. For the first time in the past four years conditions for exports of goods are actually positive.»

Swedbank economist Agnese Buceniece explains: «Processing industry’s breakthrough we’d noticed in Q4 and which is expected to continue this year is clearly reflected in export yield».

SEB Bank’s macroeconomics expert Dainis Gaspuitis notes that foreign trade had begun improving at the end of last year. In addition, news about Estonia’s export and import growth (14% and 40% respectively) was published a little earlier than usual. This information suggested that Latvia’s success may turn out very good as well.

Strautins explains the main changes: «Positive mood also wars the logging industry, which was the only one in January to have had contributed to total export growth – more than a quarter, if we include furniture. Concerns about side-product and energy product sales crisis have not come true: pellet warehouses have been emptied considerably, saw mills and factories work at great speeds. Another one-eighth of exports consists of alcoholic beverages – the only in the re-export category with such a large influence. Exports of machineries and equipment declined 9.9% and exports of electrical appliances and equipment declined 2.1%. Provisionally speaking, local export has grown by 16% and re-export – by 10%».

«The largest contribution to growth was provided by exports of wood, metal and metallic products, food and vehicle exports. These industries are also noteworthy for the increase of industrial output. In January, after almost a two-year draught, producer prices for export goods finally began growing again,» Bauceniece explains.

Swedbank economist explains CSB’s data on imports: «Imports of mineral products continue decreasing. Rapid increase of import value is secured by chemical production, food, vehicles, metals and metallic products. Over the course of the past couple of months, we have noticed a trend that after one year gap, imports of mechanisms and mechanical devices and electronic devices have finally started growing again (+13% and +7% respectively). This could mean that investment activity is beginning to recover in Latvia.»

Gaspuitis explains predictions for the future: «Exports of woodworking, food products, metal and metallic products demonstrated stable growth in January. Growth in exports will continue this year. It is likely there may be major fluctuations in exports. Nevertheless, we expect a 6% increase. It will create a good impulse for potential growth in other exports. Contribution to growth and more active investments and consumption will pull along imports, which will pull trade balance into the negative again. This decline will be covered with surplus of service export balance.»

Swedbank economist Bauceniece is of a similar opinion: «Growth in Latvia’s largest export markets is sustainable, demand continues to increase and consumers’ mood is positive. This can help cultivate export volumes. Export prices have begun growing and it seems export price deflation is behind us. Higher prices for out exporters promise higher income.»

Strautins also shares his opinion: «The economy would also grow this year even if stagnation was present in exports. This year’s main challenge will be finding people that will build homes, produce goods, provide programming services, work at restaurants and sell clothes. Some of them currently complain about the poor state of gravel roads and others work abroad.»

Ref: 225.109.109.2415


Leave a reply

Judins says parliamentary committee «is going nowhere»

The work performed by Saeima’s investigative committee in charge of oligarch case does not fit the established goal to investigate and analyse possible state capture, says member of the committee and Unity’s Saeima faction Andrejs Judins.

Study: residents criticize development of Latvia general situation the most

With the coming of autumn, residents’ optimism has declined significantly, according to results of Baltic International Bank’s Latvian Barometer.

Number of occupied jobs in Latvia up 9.3 thousand

At the end of the first half of 2017, in Latvia there were 903.2 thousand occupied posts, and, compared to the end of the first half of 2016, the number has grown by 9.3 thousand or 1.0 %.

Latkovskis says sometimes questionable votes are lobbied in Saeima in secret

There have been cases sin which questionable votes were being lobbied in the parliament in secret. Compared with last year, this tendency is demonstrating growth, said Saeima deputy Ilmārs Latkovskis in an interview to Latvijas Avīze.

E-governance advocate Ilves comments on alleged Estonian ID card vulnerability

The ex-President of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who has been an active advocate of e-governance has emphasised that a possible security risk with Estonian ID cards has not put that the country's reputation as an e-state at risk.

Delna invites Saeima to support initiative to liquidate option to abstain from votes

Society for openness Delna invites Saeima deputies to support public initiative and liquidate the option for deputies to abstain from votes.

82% of Estonian households use mobile internet at home

As to the choice of internet connection in Estonia, 82% of Estonian households use mobile internet at home, Estonian statisticians have estimated.

Baltic Express attracts railway cargoes; decline noted for other carriers

Railway cargo carrier Baltic Express more than doubled its cargo volumes in the first seven months of 2017. Meanwhile, other two cargo carriers – LDz Cargo and Baltic Transit Service – have suffered cargo declines. Baltic Association – Transport and Logistics notes that it is ringing the alarm over the situation in the industry, not over the interests of its members.

Survey: more than half of Latvian residents are half-serious about their health

44% of Latvian residents use all medicine prescribed by their doctor when they get sick, according to data from Mana Aptieka&Apotheka health index.

In pictures: Zapad drill in full swing

BNN offers you an insight into the quadrennial join military training of Belarus and Russia, which have been inspected in person by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu.

Rinkēvičs invites India to open an embassy in Latvia

During the 72nd session of the UN General Assembly in New York on Monday, 18 September, Latvian Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs met with his Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj. The two discussed political and economic cooperation between the two countries.

Norwegian top policeman sentenced to 21 years in prison for aiding hashish contraband

A court in Norway, a country often recognised as one of the least corrupt globally, has convicted a senior Norwegian police officer to 21 years in prison after finding him guilty of taking bribes and helping drugs contraband.

Road Transport Administration: transport planning in Riga does not reflect region’s scale

Road Transport Administration plans to speak with Riga and Pierīga administrations about the fractured public transport system in the region, says the administration’s chairman Kristiāns Godiņš.

Mass Ryanair cancellations expected

Irish airline Ryanair has warned that due to an internal planning problem up to 400 000 flights could be cancelled in the European Union.

Legislative draft proposed to simplify referendum procedure

The Central Election Commission has registered Open Management Partnership in Latvia signature collection association’s legislative draft submitted for the fourth time. This legislative draft proposes cancelling amendments of 8 November 2012 to the Law on National Referendum, Legislative Initiative and European Citizens’ Initiative, as reported by the commission.

Greece to lift wine tax due to low revenue

The government of Greece plans to submit draft amendments to lift the country’s year-old excise tax on wine, Greek Minister for Agricultural Development and Food has stated.

Reirs: pension budget will increase by EUR 160 million next year

Next year, pension budget will increase by more than EUR 160 million, says Latvian Welfare Minister Jānis Reirs. He explains that the total pension budget will be EUR 1.93 billion, which means funding for next year’s pensions will be 9.19% higher.

Oligarch case’s parliamentary committee settles disputes with shouting

During a meeting of Saeima’s committee entrusted with investigating Oligarch case, a loud argument broke out between Unity faction member Andrejs Judins and publicist Imants Liepiņš.

IDB: it is too soon to expect corruption to go down in traffic monitoring field

Society’s condemnation of bribery is positive, but it is currently too soon to expect the problem of bribery in road traffic monitoring field to go down, admits Internal Security Bureau chief Valters Mūrnieks.

Apinis: Latvia’s Healthcare Ministry is intellectually weak

Pēteris Apinis, head of Latvian Association of Doctors, criticizing the reform plan, saying: «Just like the Napoleon cake has no Napoleon, the reform plan has no reforms.» He believes Healthcare Ministry’s intellectual potential declined in the past three to four years and that the institution in its current state is intellectually weak.

airBaltic performed 14,324 flights in summer

In August 2017, Latvian airline airBaltic carried 386,597 passengers or 21% more than it did in the same period in 2016, as BNN was informed by the airline.

Sudraba: deputy quotas matter will be resolved in officials’ offices this year

The matter of the so-called deputy quotas will be resolved in officials’ offices this time, deputy Inguna Sudraba of To Latvia from the Heart told Latvijas Radio.

Estonia should invest in long-term productivity, environmental protection – evaluates OECD

As Estonia’s economic recovery gathers pace, it is time to work for sustainable development by protecting the environment and looking for ways to increase productivity, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has recommended.

Option to abstain from vote proposed to be liquidated to reduce possibility of hiding opinions

On Monday 18 September, a citizens’ initiative will be submitted to the Saeima to liquidate the option to abstain from votes in the parliament.

KNAB commences criminal process in state institution’s service

Corruption Prevention and Combating Bureau has commenced a criminal process for, possibly, illegal activities in a state institution service.