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Ceturtdiena 22.03.2018 | Name days: Tamāra, Dziedra

People’s confidence around the world currently higher than it was before the crisis

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUConsumer confidence around the world has reached 98 points in Q3 2014, which is one point higher than it was in the previous period and two points higher than it was at the beginning of the year. This index, which has been demonstrating slow but stable growth since the beginning of 2012, remains higher than it was before the crisis.

Consumer mood index is estimated using 100 points as a threshold. Any value above it means higher confidence; anything below it means more pessimism.

Europe’s confidence level is 78, which is lower than the one in the world in total. Consumer mood in Latvia is the same. Lithuanians and Estonians are somewhat more optimistic – 86 in Lithuania and 80 in Estonia.

Among the largest economies in the world, the most notable change in consumer mood is noted in USA – the country’s index has increased by four points, reaching 108. Germany’s index has grown by one point (97), by one in the UK (93) and by four in Japan (77). China’s consumer mood remains stable – 111.

The highest index of consumer confidence is noted in India (126). The lowest one is noted in Italy (47). Australia has experienced the most notable increase with its index of 97. Chile, on the other hand, has experienced the most notable decline (88).

According to Dr Louise Keely of Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index, consumer mood changes outside of North America are weaker and more fragmented, because values are largely affected by regions and specific factors in each separate country. She mentioned that Europe’s overall confidence is heavily influenced by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, which came at the same time as political attempts to prevent deflation risks and improve economic growth. Confidence has recovered in India, which was largely because of the election of a new government. Rise of consumer confidence in China has a different reason – reorientation of the economy towards domestic consumption.

52% of respondents have said they expect the labour market to be in good or great state next year. This is two percentage points more than the survey results for the previous quarter. This slight increase has been noted in every stage of the survey since 2009, when optimism about the state of the labour market was expressed by only 31% of respondents.

The largest increase in optimism in regard to possibilities of getting a job was noted in North America, where it has increased by nine percentage points over the past 12 months, reaching 55%. Rise in confidence has also been noticed in other markets – by seven percentage points in Asia and Pacific region, reaching 66%; by six percentage points in the Near East and Africa, reaching 46%; and by five percentage points in Europe, reaching 31%. South America is the only region of the world, where this index has declined by seven percentage points, down to 34%.

Considering that 54% of respondents had said in the previous survey that there is a crisis in their respective countries, specialists remain cautious in regard to consumption outlooks for the future. In regard to spending money and saving money, values in the world remain on the same level, some markets demonstrate increases of one percentage point in regard to cash money savings (49% of respondents), savings for pension (12%) and vacation and weekend expenses (36%). Nearly one-third of respondents plan to spend money on clothes (34%) and entertainment outside of home (31%). No changes have been noticed in these indexes. Approximately one-fourth of respondents plan to spend money on procurement of new technologies, which is two percentage points lower than before. 20% of respondents plan to allocate money to pay for debts and loans.

Consumers remain interested the most in the situation in economy and labour market. Optimism is noted in both these areas. Concerns are nonetheless on a rise in other segments. 27% of respondents in North America see the economic situation as the main reason for concerns. Concerns about terrorism have risen by seven percentage points, reaching 14%. Fears over the possibility of war have risen by five percentage points, reaching 9%. Concerns over balancing labour and leisure worry 12% of respondents, which is three percentage points higher than before.

In Europe, opportunities in the labour market were mentioned as the primary reason for concerns by 21% of respondents, which is three percentage points fewer than before. Concerns about economic matters have declined by one percentage point to 20%. Fears related to the possibility of war have increased by eight percentage points, reaching 18%. Fears related to war have increased in Baltic States as well: 30% in Latvia, 14% in Lithuania and 21% in Estonia.


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