In the nearest future, European residents will pay less for potatoes, milk and apricots, but more for pork, porridge, rise and chocolate, given the price changes and estimated harvest, reports the Latvian Association of Traders.
Pork has become more expensive in the EU. The largest price increase is noted in Germany, where prices increased by 0.10 EUR per kg, even though German producers believe the price still cannot cover expensive production costs. The price for the products of the Dutch Vion pork producer also increased – up to 1.7 EUR/kg, which is a record high level, given the fact that the previous time pork price was so high was in September 2008. Prices increased the most in Belgium and Austria (+0.10 EUR).
Import of apples and pears from third countries decreased. There were 278 000 tons of apples and 120 000 tons of pears imported in the first half-year, which is 30% and 40% less than last year. Chile imported the most apples in 2012 – 82 000 tons. New Zealand and South African Republic – each imported 54 000 tons. It should be added that the EU seems to consume more pears. Argentina imported the most this year – 47 000 tons. Apple prices vary from 0.21 to 0.79 LVL/kg, while pear price – from 0.75 LVL to 0.88 LVL/kg.
Mexico and Brazil have reduces orange harvests, which is why citrus harvest in the world in 51.3 million tons, which is 4% less than in the previous season. A slight price increase is expected. EU orange harvest is also expected to be 12% less than in the previous season – 5.5 million tons. Most oranges (around 80%) are produced in Spain and Italy. The rest are produced by Greece, Cyprus and Portugal. It should be noted that orange popularity decreased among consumers. Spain has the highest orange consumption rates, 20 kg per capita per year. Current average orange prices are around 0.83 LVL/kg.
Apricot harvest in France significantly increased – by 13%, to 177 000 tons -, which is the largest EU producer of this fruit. Therefore, it is expected that the price could decrease (current price 1.28 LVL/kg).
Potatoes are more often replaced by porridge, pasta and rise. Potato prices are expected to decrease. Porridge and rise, on the other hand, are expected to become more expensive. Current potato wholesale price is 0.07 LVL/kg, new harvest potato wholesale price is 0.05 LVL/kg. Barley porridge price for 4×125 gr is 0.29 LVL, rise costs 0.55 LVL/kg, white rise price per 4×125 g is 0.38 LVL.
Also, Europe is going through milk price reductions. As a result, the most dissatisfied milk producers are in Germany. Currently, they receive 0.18-0.22 LVL per litre, but believe they should receive 0.28 LVL per litre. Milk price also decreased in Latvia. Current wholesale prices for 2% milk are starting from 0.40 LVL per litre, 3.2% milk costs 0.42 LVL per litre.
It is estimated that chocolate consumption rates will grow by 10% in the next five years. As a result of a market increase, chocolate bars will be smaller and so will be the concentration of cocoa in them. The largest market increase will be in Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. The motivation for this is the large proportion of young people in these regions, the growing middle class and changes consumption habits. With that, it is expected prices for chocolate will grow; especially Premium class group chocolate. Current wholesale price for 100g of dark chocolate is 0.42 LVL. 100 g of milk chocolate cost 0.32 LVL.