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Monday 22.01.2018 | Name days: Austris

Russian politologist: there is a high risk of defeat for Russia

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUSanctions imposed against Russia by the West will likely force Kremlin to change its policy. It may even lead to a notable economic effect. However, Russia will be affected much more significantly by internal economic risks, says head of Strategic Evaluation Department of Russian Science Academy Sergei Utkin.

He believes sanctions represent a strong resentment of Russia’s policy, not an instrument to affect said policy. ‘Sanctions against Iran, though strong, did not resolve the problem. The country has learned to live with them even though the state budget lost a valuable resource in the process. Achieving the same effect with Russia will be hard: Europe is dependent on Russian gas more so than on American or Iranian oil. Russia’s share of trade with USA is 3%. Trade relations with Ukraine form 5%. Russia’s trade relations with Europe form 50%. The question is – will someone in Europe attempt to cut these ties?‘ – says the specialist.

The risk of defeat for Russia is high, even in a medium-term perspective, and this is not related to western sanctions. The risk is formed from internal processes – mainly economic risks, because there tends to be a lot of problems in this area, said the expert. ‘Any activities that are similar to what we have seen so far will be a great burden for Russia’s economic system,’ – said the politologist.

According to Utkin, the situation in Crimea alone cannot collapse Russia’s economy. However, dependence on trading of raw materials, unrealized modernization and the necessity to support residents of Crimea all increase risks.

‘Even more so, neo-imperialists say economic growth is not necessary for us. Instead, they say we need power. I believe it is a road down to collapse,’ – says the expert.

‘There is no guarantee that the Russian government will maintain ties with reality, because we are currently in a situation when the psychological factor plays a big role. There is an element of irrational sense of want, like the one heroes of the Lord of the Rings feel towards the One Ring. It affects many people who are otherwise strong and adequate in their actions,’ – says Utkin.

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  1. Linda says:

    Is it too early to hope that common-sense will prevail at long last in Russia?

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  2. mike walsh says:

    Another ‘ologist’ educated beyond his intelligence. ‘Will someone in Europe attempt to cut these (50%) ties’. Who in EU has the power to act unilaterally? Cutting ties? Do turkeys vote for Christmas? I bet this ‘ologist’ is far better paid than is the man in the pub who could have a far better perspective. We sure live in an ‘Emperor’s New Clothes’ world.

    Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

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