bnn.lv Latviski   bnn-news.com English   bnn-news.ru По-русски
Saturday 19.08.2017 | Name days: Melānija, Imanta

SEB: there is a 50% chance Lithuania will be eligible for Euro in 2015

FaceBook
Twitter
Draugiem
print
(No Ratings Yet)

Dainis Gaspuitis

Dainis Gaspuitis

The Baltic States have been the most rapidly growing economies in the European Union lately, and they can retain their positions in the future as well. Economic growth in Latvia and Lithuania is expected to slow down this year. That in Estonia will remain unchanged – 3.3% respectively. Next year’s activity will grow to 3.7%, as BNN was told by SEB bank economist Dainis Gaspuitis.

“Under influence from external factors, Latvia’s growth rates will reduce to 3.5% this year. It will, however, increase to 4.8% in 2014. That of Lithuania is 3.2% and 3.5% respectively. Activity is mainly dictated by private consumption, even though export shows good results. There seems to be a pressure of expenses in Estonia, which is formed by a rapid increase of salaries. While Latvia soon expects to receive green light for Euro adoption, there is only a 50% probability of Lithuania qualifying for this in 2015. Reducing inflation in order to meet the specific level of Maastricht criteria will prove to be quite a challenge for Lithuania”, – the economist predicts.

According to him, the global economic growth rate is slowly becoming stronger. According to the outlook of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, the GDP of 34 countries of the world will increase by 1.3% this year and 2.3% next year. “Factors that reduce the pressure on prices remain important. Even though the official economic policy is treated to market trust, which is reflected in the low bond yields and growing stock markets, changes in fiscal and monetary policy sustain general uncertainty”, – the bank expert notes.

According to him, cyclic forces and monetary policy factors are currently on the side of global economic growth. Meanwhile, the surplus and investment level remains low. Policies of central banks continue to secure low interest rates and unlimited liquidity.

“Eurozone will remain on the side of negative economic processes. In spite of its achievements in reducing inequality, it still combats the dangerously weak growth and insufficiently capitalized banking system and credit offer, large state debt and political instability combination”, – Gaspuitis says.

The main risks that are linked to the untraditional monetary policy are related to the inability of political leaders to carry out necessary reforms and the financial market’s ability to realize an adequate price setting.

According to the economist, fundamental problems remain as well. Credit offer, especially in Southern Europe, is insufficient because of weak banks. The debt level of households and companies remains high. Apartment prices reduce. The current account improvements are largely related to the weak domestic economy. The level of unemployment will continue to rise, reaching a record level in 2014 – 12.4%. Attempts to form a political union, which is an important stabilizing factor, is progressing very slowly. The fact that the austerity policy is being overlooked creates uncertainty about the longevity of the international financial aid program.

Following a short slow-down in the nearest quarter, the economy of USA will continue to recover. In 2013, the GDP will grow by 2.0% and by 3.2% in 2014 with no signs of a growing pressure from inflation. The job market is expected to recover slowly. The budget will remain the source of political instability, even though the deficit of the federal budget is reducing faster than expected. The housing market, on the other hand, will continue to recover, Gaspuitis predicts.

From the perspective of Nordic countries, the economic situation continues to show different trends. Sweden’s recovery will continue, but slowly. The problems of Eurozone will affect export and investment growth, while households continue to spend in spite of growing unemployment. It is expected to grow to 8.2%, which is expected to be followed by careful reduction. In 2013, GDP will grow by 1.3% and by 2.5% in 2014.

Denmark’s and Finland’s economies will combat stagnation. Norway’s economy, on the other hand, is in a better state. Norway’s GDP increase will be 1.7% this year and 2.4% next year.

Ref: 102.109.109.7404


Leave a reply

Kirsis asks police to assess possible forging of votes at Riga City Council

Riga City Council’s Unity faction chairman Vilnis Kirsis has asked State Police to check if the city council’s electronic voting system was used without another deputy’s knowledge or consent, said the politician.

Expert: attack in Spain shows how terrorists switched to more easily reachable targets

Terrorist attacks that transpired in Spain this week shows how terrorists have switched to more easily reachable targets, where security requirements are not as strict, says Latvian National Defence Academy’s Security and Strategic Research Centre researcher Martins Hirss.

New mandatory tests in schools to be introduced four years from now

In four years’ time – 2021/2022 school year – it is planned to introduce completely new mandatory tests in schools, as reported by State Education Content Centre Director Guntars Catlaks.

Nearly 9,000 children and their parents got homes thanks to state support programme

In the first half-year of 2017, state support helped 1,527 families in Latvia to buy homes. Compared with last year, families’ demand for state support has grown 6%, as reported by Altum finance institute.

Prediction: Aseradens will likely take control over Unity

Economy Minister Arvils Aseradens will become the head of Unity, Betsafe bookmakers predict. The possibility of Aseradens becoming the head of the party is given 45% probability by Betsafe.

Provisional estimate for next year’s fiscal space in Latvia is EUR 60 million

Next year’s fiscal space has been estimated at EUR 60 million, as noted by Finance Minister Dana Reizniece-Ozola, adding that a more precise estimate will be available at the end of August.

Reconstruction of Vilnius airport runway concludes; aircraft return to Vilnius

On Thursday, 17 August, Vilnius airport’s runway was festively opened. This was the most massive reconstruction for the airport in the past 20 years. It was a unique project for Lithuania and all of Europe, airport representatives say.

Islamic State terrorist group takes responsibility for Barcelona attack

The recent terrorist attack in Barcelona, in which a shuttle bus rammed a crowd of people on La Rambla, killing 13 and injuring at least 100, has become this week’s topic.

Weather in Latvia to be warm but rainy on weekends

The sun will appear every now and then between clouds on Friday, 18 August. Still, some rain is expected, especially in the afternoon in Latvia’s eastern regions, where thunderstorms may appear. Rain is expected to reach the capital in the afternoon. Wind will draw in from the south. Air temperature will reach +21° C… +26° C, according to State Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre.

Latvia’s export growth was moderately rapid in the first six months of 2017

Compared with the same period of 2016, Latvia experienced a moderately rapid export growth in the first six months of 2017, according to data published by Eurostat on Thursday, 17 August.

Latvia’s annual inflation in July was one of the highest in Europe

Inflation indexes in Latvia and the UK both reached 2.6% in July, which is one of the highest indexes in the European Union, according to data published by Eurostat on Thursday, 17 August.

Kirsis withdraws his candidacy in favour of Aseradens

Riga City Council member Vilnis Kirsis has decided to withdraw his candidacy from the race to become chairman of Unity in favour of a different candidate – Economy Minister Arvils Aseradens.

Rinkevics expresses Latvia’s interest in maintaining political consultations with Palestine

On Thursday, 17 August, Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkevics met with the leader of Palestine’s diplomatic mission in Latvia, ambassador Taissir Al Adjouri, to discuss mutual relations between Latvia and Palestine and the peace process in the Middle East.

Putin grins to the world’s seven billionth baby, Lithuania wary of border incidents

Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit this Wednesday to Kaliningrad, the westernmost point of Russia, but the reports about his trip in the Russian enclave and over the border in Lithuania were strikingly different.

Survey: red considered the safest colour for a car

Most Latvian drivers consider red to be the safest colour for a car. The most popular, however, is black, according to results of a survey by Virši-A fuel trader.

airBaltic’s number of carried passengers reaches a record in second consecutive month

Latvian airBaltic airline carried 393,312 passengers in July 2017, which is 21% more than the same period last year. The number of passengers carried by airBaltic remains the highest it has ever been in the airline’s history, BNN was informed by the company.

Brivais vilnis: nearly all fish processing companies are experiencing losses

Currently nearly all fish processing companies in Latvia are experiencing major or minor losses, says Brivais vilnis chairman Arnols Babris.

American helicopters to perform low-altitude flights within Latvia’s airspace

U.S. Air Force Brigade’s Task Force Phoenix helicopters, which are stationed in Latvia as part of Atlantic Resolve operation, will be performing low-altitude flights from 16:00 to 18:00 from Lielvarde to Dobele on Friday, 18 August.

Healthcare Ministry’s state secretary Karlis Ketners may be replaced

Latvian Healthcare Ministry may replace its state secretary Karlis Ketners. It is possible he will be transferred to work at Finance Ministry, as reported by LTV.

Suspects in Europe's insecticide egg scandal before Dutch court

In the Netherlands, two men have been in court in relation to the scandal of eggs containing banned insecticide that has caused an EU-wide health scare and cost millions of euros of damages.

Indian national with fake documents apprehended on Latvian border

An Indian citizen travelling from Moscow on a bus was caught at Terehovo border control point in Latvia for presenting officers a fake EU family member’s resident card. No criminal process was launched. The person returned to the country he was travelling from.

Latvijas dzelzceļš will not have to pay dividends from last year’s profits

The government decided on Wednesday, 16 August, that Latvijas dzelzceļš will not have to pay dividends from last year’s profits, which were EUR 880,998.

Latvian citizenship provided to 103 people

The Cabinet of Ministers has issued an order to provide Latvian citizenship to 103 people through naturalization.

Estonian Inbank's profits reach EUR 5.7 million in six months

Estonian financial services' provided Inbank made a profit of 5.7 million euros in the first half of 2017, which is a 429.4% increase compared to the respective period in 2016.

Agriculture Ministry invites residents to sign up for measures to support fisheries

From 21 August onward, Rural Support Service plans to start accepting applications for projects to receive support from European Maritime and Fisheries Fund’s action plan for development of fisheries in 2014-2020 as part of projects Innovation, Productive Investments in Aquaculture and Fishing and Aquaculture project processing.

Newest comments