bnn.lv Latviski   bnn-news.com English   bnn-news.ru По-русски
Monday 23.10.2017 | Name days: Daina, Dainida, Dainis

SEB: there is a 50% chance Lithuania will be eligible for Euro in 2015

FaceBook
Twitter
Draugiem
print
(No Ratings Yet)

Dainis Gaspuitis

Dainis Gaspuitis

The Baltic States have been the most rapidly growing economies in the European Union lately, and they can retain their positions in the future as well. Economic growth in Latvia and Lithuania is expected to slow down this year. That in Estonia will remain unchanged – 3.3% respectively. Next year’s activity will grow to 3.7%, as BNN was told by SEB bank economist Dainis Gaspuitis.

“Under influence from external factors, Latvia’s growth rates will reduce to 3.5% this year. It will, however, increase to 4.8% in 2014. That of Lithuania is 3.2% and 3.5% respectively. Activity is mainly dictated by private consumption, even though export shows good results. There seems to be a pressure of expenses in Estonia, which is formed by a rapid increase of salaries. While Latvia soon expects to receive green light for Euro adoption, there is only a 50% probability of Lithuania qualifying for this in 2015. Reducing inflation in order to meet the specific level of Maastricht criteria will prove to be quite a challenge for Lithuania”, – the economist predicts.

According to him, the global economic growth rate is slowly becoming stronger. According to the outlook of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, the GDP of 34 countries of the world will increase by 1.3% this year and 2.3% next year. “Factors that reduce the pressure on prices remain important. Even though the official economic policy is treated to market trust, which is reflected in the low bond yields and growing stock markets, changes in fiscal and monetary policy sustain general uncertainty”, – the bank expert notes.

According to him, cyclic forces and monetary policy factors are currently on the side of global economic growth. Meanwhile, the surplus and investment level remains low. Policies of central banks continue to secure low interest rates and unlimited liquidity.

“Eurozone will remain on the side of negative economic processes. In spite of its achievements in reducing inequality, it still combats the dangerously weak growth and insufficiently capitalized banking system and credit offer, large state debt and political instability combination”, – Gaspuitis says.

The main risks that are linked to the untraditional monetary policy are related to the inability of political leaders to carry out necessary reforms and the financial market’s ability to realize an adequate price setting.

According to the economist, fundamental problems remain as well. Credit offer, especially in Southern Europe, is insufficient because of weak banks. The debt level of households and companies remains high. Apartment prices reduce. The current account improvements are largely related to the weak domestic economy. The level of unemployment will continue to rise, reaching a record level in 2014 – 12.4%. Attempts to form a political union, which is an important stabilizing factor, is progressing very slowly. The fact that the austerity policy is being overlooked creates uncertainty about the longevity of the international financial aid program.

Following a short slow-down in the nearest quarter, the economy of USA will continue to recover. In 2013, the GDP will grow by 2.0% and by 3.2% in 2014 with no signs of a growing pressure from inflation. The job market is expected to recover slowly. The budget will remain the source of political instability, even though the deficit of the federal budget is reducing faster than expected. The housing market, on the other hand, will continue to recover, Gaspuitis predicts.

From the perspective of Nordic countries, the economic situation continues to show different trends. Sweden’s recovery will continue, but slowly. The problems of Eurozone will affect export and investment growth, while households continue to spend in spite of growing unemployment. It is expected to grow to 8.2%, which is expected to be followed by careful reduction. In 2013, GDP will grow by 1.3% and by 2.5% in 2014.

Denmark’s and Finland’s economies will combat stagnation. Norway’s economy, on the other hand, is in a better state. Norway’s GDP increase will be 1.7% this year and 2.4% next year.

Ref: 102.109.109.7404


Leave a reply

BNN summary of the week: birth and death rates in Latvia turn out shocking. Gambling halls to close down

BNN offers a summary of this week’s topical news in a variety of categories: Fight; Truth; Business; Future.

Professor: by taking money away from science, the state shoots itself in the foot

The matter regarding insufficient funding for science has recently become more topical in the public space. President of Latvian Academy of Sciences Ojārs Spārītis is rather critical of the situation: Latvia has lied to the European Union and European Commission about making sure that funding for science reaches 1.5% of GDP by 2020.

To prevent fraud, audit of MPC recipients to be performed in Latvia

Latvian Economy Ministry intends to perform an audit of mandatory procurement component recipients and use new regulations to combat fraudulent activities, as confirmed by Economy Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

Rail Baltic procurements to be processed using Electronic Procurements System

Following the changes to Latvian Republic’s Public Procurements Law, all new procurements for Rail Baltica administered by RB RAIL will be processed using a free electronic information system and its e-contest subsystem.

Estonian construction price index pushed up by wages

The construction price index in Estonia has in July-September of 2017 increased by 0.9% in comparison to second quarter this year and by 1.7% from July-September of 2016, Estonian statisticians have estimated.

Surplus of Latvia’s government budget reached 9.5 million euros in 2016

In 2016 general government budget surplus accounted for EUR 9.5 million or 0.04 % of the Gross Domestic Product, whereas general government consolidated gross debt amounted to EUR 10 091.6 million or 40.6 % of the GDP.

Latvia to invest EUR 5.9 million into formation of unified port network

Ports of Riga planning region and Kurzeme planning region have commenced an important tourism project. The goal of this project is creating a unified yacht port network in Latvia and Estonia with quality services that would allow developing sailing tourism and attract foreign sailing enthusiasts in the future, reports the regions’ representative Inese Ozoliņa.

Graft-suspected Tartu deputy mayors resign

In Estonia's second largest city, Tartu, Deputy Mayors Artjom Suvorov and Valvo Semilarski have stepped down from office, Estonian press reported, after the politicians were arrested under suspicion of graft.

Expert: workers of Latvia’s NGO sector have high ‘burnout’ risk

Workers of Latvia’s NGO sector have a high burnout risk, said once the director of Providus Dace Akule in an interview to Latvijas Radio.

Producer: many young people come to work in the film industry

Latvia’s film industry has been steadily growing these past several years, and it is especially gratifying that many young people are coming to work in the industry, says director and producer, representative of Film Angels Productions Jānis Kalējs.

Pollution blamed for every sixth premature death globally

Nine million premature deaths globally in 2015 are said to be related to pollution, a study has found pointing to presence of harmful matter in air, water and workplace as the three main risk factors.

Infectologist: influenza kills biologically the weakest, including children and pregnant women

Influenza is an infection that affects both children and adults. However, it kills those who are biologically weak, says Immunization State Council chairperson and infectologist of Children’s Vaccination Centre Dace Zavadska.

Investor activity made easier between Latvia and Vietnam

An intergovernmental agreement has been signed between the Republic of Latvia and Socialist Republic of Vietnam on prevention of double taxation and tax avoidance in relation to income tax.

Colder masses of air to enter Latvia in coming days; precipitation to be limited

Although high atmospheric pressure will be present above Latvia in the coming days, southern regions in Latvia will experience short-term precipitation on Saturday, 12 October, caused by the cyclone active above Poland. Colder masses of air will enter Latvia in the coming days.

Maltese journalist said to be killed by remotely-controlled explosive

Officials in Malta have unveiled it is assumed that investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia was murdered by an explosive places under her car, which was detonated remotely.

Prime Minister: Latvia cannot accept additional asylum seekers

Latvia cannot afford to resettle additional asylum seekers, said Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis during his meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday, 19 October.

Scandinavians purchase tourism company in Lithuania; changes expected in Latvia too

Dutch Otravo online travel organization has expanded and has purchased Lithuanian online travel agency Interno Partneris, thereby entering the Baltic market.

Ombudsman: non-citizen status matter should be resolved in next decade

The next ten years may be the transition period to ‘put an end’ to the non-citizen status in Latvia, said ombudsman Juris Jansons in an interview to LTV programme Rīta panorama.

Swedish Foreign Minister: harassment exists at highest political level

The Foreign Affairs Minister of Sweden, Margot Wallström, has commended the current sexual assault and harassment awareness campaign in social media and urged to fellow politicians to address the problem.

Latvenergo recognized as Latvia’s most valuable company for tenth time

Latvenergo has been recognized as Latvia’s most valuable company in 2017. Its value grew 34% in comparison with 2016, according to the TOP 101 list of Latvia’s most valuable companies compiled by Prudentia and Nasdaq Riga.

Number of births and number of deaths decline in Latvia

During the first nine months of this year 15,723 babies were born in Latvia, which is 1,113 children fewer than in the corresponding period of the last year.

CC applies binding conditions for the sale of MTG Broadcasting AB

Latvian Competition Council has decided to permit Bite Lietuva to purchase MTG Broadcasting AB group’s businesses in Latvia. CC has applied several binding conditions to prevent a possible impact on competition on the television services and advertisement market.

Eesti Energia warns: Limiting CO2 emissions on capacity could endanger energy supply

Estonian energy giant Eesti Energia has evaluated that a plan under discussion in the European Union to introduce a carbon dioxide release limit for capacity mechanisms to qualify for subsidies could adversely affect the security of supply in Estonia and the Baltic states.

Solidarity tax norm recognized as non-compliant with Latvia’s Constitution

On Thursday, 19 October, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Latvia declared the Solidarity tax norm as non-compliant with the country’s Constitution.

Survey: Riga residents go to the doctor’s the most often

34% of residents undergo regular health checks, according to Mana Aptieka & Apotheka health index. In addition, women are twice as serious about health checks as men.