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Saturday 21.10.2017 | Name days: Severīns, Urzula

Ten outrageous Saxo Bank predictions for the coming year

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUSaxo Bank has announced its Outrageous Predictions for 2016. These predictions consist of predictions for events that may have a massive impact on the world’s financial environment next year.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: «Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions remain an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside down. It is rewarding to see how the Outrageous Predictions catch our clients’ imagination and fuel ongoing debate; it is this process of discussion and anti-herd thinking that is at the heart of Saxo’s now established tradition of attempting to draw attention to the unfathomable».

EURUSD direction? It’s 1.23…

Europe is running a massive current account surplus and its weaker inflation should, in macroeconomic logic, mean a stronger currency, not a weaker one. The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rates policy.

Russia’s rouble rises 20% by end-2016

By the end of 2016, a surge in oil demand and the Fed raising rates at an inappropriately slow pace causes the Russian rouble to rise some 20% versus the US dollar/euro basket in 2016.

Silicon Valley’s unicorns brought back down to earth

2016 will resemble 2000 in Silicon Valley with more start-ups delaying monetisation and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass.

Olympics to turbo-charge EM’s Brazil-led recovery

Stabilisation, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies. The result: EM equities to have a great year – outperforming bonds and other equities.

Democrats retain presidency, retake Congress in 2016 landslide

The Republican Party goes from strength to dramatic weakness as the rifts from an internal struggle on its future direction play out. This leads to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party as they successfully execute a get-out-the-vote campaign with Millennials coming out in droves having been frustrated by the political stalemate and weak job prospects of the last eight years.

OPEC turmoil triggers brief return to $100/b oil

OPEC’s crude oil basket price drops to the lowest since 2009 and unease among weaker as well as wealthier members of the cartel over the supply-and-rule strategy continues to grow. The long awaited sign of an accelerated slowdown in non-OPEC production finally begins to flicker. Suitably buoyed, OPEC catches the market on the hop with a downward adjustment in output. The price mounts a quick recovery with investors scrambling to re-enter the market to the long side – once again bringing $100/barrel prices onto the horizon.

Silver breaks golden shackles to rally 33%

2016 will see a renewed confidence in silver. The political drive towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal, given its use in solar cells. As such, silver will rally by a third, leaving other metals behind.

Aggressive Fed sees meltdown in global corporate bonds

Late 2016 will see Fed chief Janet Yellen embark down a hawkish path with a series of aggressive rate hikes, triggering a huge selloff in all major bond markets as yields start to rise. As the portions of bank and broker balance sheets allotted to bond trading and market making have almost disappeared, one of the vital parts of a functioning market is simply not there. This realisation sinks in too late and the entire buy-side flee into a panic selling one-way street, as highly advanced risk models lurch into a symmetric red alert.

El Niño sparks inflation surge

Next year’s El Niño will be the strongest on record and will cause moisture deficits in many areas of south-east Asia and droughts in Australia. Lower yields across agricultural commodities will curb supply at a time when demand is still increasing on the back of global economic expansion. The outcome will be a 40% surge in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, adding some much-needed inflationary pressure.

Inequality has last laugh on luxury

Faced with rising inequality and unemployment of over 10%, Europe is considering the introduction of a basic universal income to ensure that all citizens can afford to meet their basic needs. In a more egalitarian society where other values are promoted, demand for luxury goods decreases sharply – the sector collapses.

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Professor: by taking money away from science, the state shoots itself in the foot

The matter regarding insufficient funding for science has recently become more topical in the public space. President of Latvian Academy of Sciences Ojārs Spārītis is rather critical of the situation: Latvia has lied to the European Union and European Commission about making sure that funding for science reaches 1.5% of GDP by 2020.

To prevent fraud, audit of MPC recipients to be performed in Latvia

Latvian Economy Ministry intends to perform an audit of mandatory procurement component recipients and use new regulations to combat fraudulent activities, as confirmed by Economy Minister Arvils Ašeradens.

Rail Baltic procurements to be processed using Electronic Procurements System

Following the changes to Latvian Republic’s Public Procurements Law, all new procurements for Rail Baltica administered by RB RAIL will be processed using a free electronic information system and its e-contest subsystem.

Estonian construction price index pushed up by wages

The construction price index in Estonia has in July-September of 2017 increased by 0.9% in comparison to second quarter this year and by 1.7% from July-September of 2016, Estonian statisticians have estimated.

Surplus of Latvia’s government budget reached 9.5 million euros in 2016

In 2016 general government budget surplus accounted for EUR 9.5 million or 0.04 % of the Gross Domestic Product, whereas general government consolidated gross debt amounted to EUR 10 091.6 million or 40.6 % of the GDP.

Latvia to invest EUR 5.9 million into formation of unified port network

Ports of Riga planning region and Kurzeme planning region have commenced an important tourism project. The goal of this project is creating a unified yacht port network in Latvia and Estonia with quality services that would allow developing sailing tourism and attract foreign sailing enthusiasts in the future, reports the regions’ representative Inese Ozoliņa.

Graft-suspected Tartu deputy mayors resign

In Estonia's second largest city, Tartu, Deputy Mayors Artjom Suvorov and Valvo Semilarski have stepped down from office, Estonian press reported, after the politicians were arrested under suspicion of graft.

Expert: workers of Latvia’s NGO sector have high ‘burnout’ risk

Workers of Latvia’s NGO sector have a high burnout risk, said once the director of Providus Dace Akule in an interview to Latvijas Radio.

Producer: many young people come to work in the film industry

Latvia’s film industry has been steadily growing these past several years, and it is especially gratifying that many young people are coming to work in the industry, says director and producer, representative of Film Angels Productions Jānis Kalējs.

Pollution blamed for every sixth premature death globally

Nine million premature deaths globally in 2015 are said to be related to pollution, a study has found pointing to presence of harmful matter in air, water and workplace as the three main risk factors.

Infectologist: influenza kills biologically the weakest, including children and pregnant women

Influenza is an infection that affects both children and adults. However, it kills those who are biologically weak, says Immunization State Council chairperson and infectologist of Children’s Vaccination Centre Dace Zavadska.

Investor activity made easier between Latvia and Vietnam

An intergovernmental agreement has been signed between the Republic of Latvia and Socialist Republic of Vietnam on prevention of double taxation and tax avoidance in relation to income tax.

Colder masses of air to enter Latvia in coming days; precipitation to be limited

Although high atmospheric pressure will be present above Latvia in the coming days, southern regions in Latvia will experience short-term precipitation on Saturday, 12 October, caused by the cyclone active above Poland. Colder masses of air will enter Latvia in the coming days.

Maltese journalist said to be killed by remotely-controlled explosive

Officials in Malta have unveiled it is assumed that investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia was murdered by an explosive places under her car, which was detonated remotely.

Prime Minister: Latvia cannot accept additional asylum seekers

Latvia cannot afford to resettle additional asylum seekers, said Prime Minister Māris Kučinskis during his meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Thursday, 19 October.

Scandinavians purchase tourism company in Lithuania; changes expected in Latvia too

Dutch Otravo online travel organization has expanded and has purchased Lithuanian online travel agency Interno Partneris, thereby entering the Baltic market.

Ombudsman: non-citizen status matter should be resolved in next decade

The next ten years may be the transition period to ‘put an end’ to the non-citizen status in Latvia, said ombudsman Juris Jansons in an interview to LTV programme Rīta panorama.

Swedish Foreign Minister: harassment exists at highest political level

The Foreign Affairs Minister of Sweden, Margot Wallström, has commended the current sexual assault and harassment awareness campaign in social media and urged to fellow politicians to address the problem.

Latvenergo recognized as Latvia’s most valuable company for tenth time

Latvenergo has been recognized as Latvia’s most valuable company in 2017. Its value grew 34% in comparison with 2016, according to the TOP 101 list of Latvia’s most valuable companies compiled by Prudentia and Nasdaq Riga.

Number of births and number of deaths decline in Latvia

During the first nine months of this year 15,723 babies were born in Latvia, which is 1,113 children fewer than in the corresponding period of the last year.

CC applies binding conditions for the sale of MTG Broadcasting AB

Latvian Competition Council has decided to permit Bite Lietuva to purchase MTG Broadcasting AB group’s businesses in Latvia. CC has applied several binding conditions to prevent a possible impact on competition on the television services and advertisement market.

Eesti Energia warns: Limiting CO2 emissions on capacity could endanger energy supply

Estonian energy giant Eesti Energia has evaluated that a plan under discussion in the European Union to introduce a carbon dioxide release limit for capacity mechanisms to qualify for subsidies could adversely affect the security of supply in Estonia and the Baltic states.

Solidarity tax norm recognized as non-compliant with Latvia’s Constitution

On Thursday, 19 October, the Constitutional Court of the Republic of Latvia declared the Solidarity tax norm as non-compliant with the country’s Constitution.

Survey: Riga residents go to the doctor’s the most often

34% of residents undergo regular health checks, according to Mana Aptieka & Apotheka health index. In addition, women are twice as serious about health checks as men.

LG cozies up with idea of rebuilding railway tracks to Reņģe, Latvia

Lithuania‘s Lietuvos Geležinkeliai has sent a mixed message as to what it intends to do next following an EC fine of nearly 28 million against it over the dismantling a 19-km railway stretch with the Latvian village of Rengė.