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Sunday 22.01.2017 | Name days: Austris

Ten outrageous Saxo Bank predictions for the coming year

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUSaxo Bank has announced its Outrageous Predictions for 2016. These predictions consist of predictions for events that may have a massive impact on the world’s financial environment next year.

Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank, commented: «Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions remain an exercise in finding ten relatively controversial and unrelated ideas which could turn your investment world upside down. It is rewarding to see how the Outrageous Predictions catch our clients’ imagination and fuel ongoing debate; it is this process of discussion and anti-herd thinking that is at the heart of Saxo’s now established tradition of attempting to draw attention to the unfathomable».

EURUSD direction? It’s 1.23…

Europe is running a massive current account surplus and its weaker inflation should, in macroeconomic logic, mean a stronger currency, not a weaker one. The race to the bottom has gone full circle, meaning we are back to a weaker US dollar again as the direct outcome of US interest rates policy.

Russia’s rouble rises 20% by end-2016

By the end of 2016, a surge in oil demand and the Fed raising rates at an inappropriately slow pace causes the Russian rouble to rise some 20% versus the US dollar/euro basket in 2016.

Silicon Valley’s unicorns brought back down to earth

2016 will resemble 2000 in Silicon Valley with more start-ups delaying monetisation and tangible business models in exchange for adding users and trying to achieve critical mass.

Olympics to turbo-charge EM’s Brazil-led recovery

Stabilisation, investment spending on the Olympics, and modest reforms will see sentiment rebound in Brazil, with EM exports helped by cheaper local currencies. The result: EM equities to have a great year – outperforming bonds and other equities.

Democrats retain presidency, retake Congress in 2016 landslide

The Republican Party goes from strength to dramatic weakness as the rifts from an internal struggle on its future direction play out. This leads to a landslide victory for the Democratic Party as they successfully execute a get-out-the-vote campaign with Millennials coming out in droves having been frustrated by the political stalemate and weak job prospects of the last eight years.

OPEC turmoil triggers brief return to $100/b oil

OPEC’s crude oil basket price drops to the lowest since 2009 and unease among weaker as well as wealthier members of the cartel over the supply-and-rule strategy continues to grow. The long awaited sign of an accelerated slowdown in non-OPEC production finally begins to flicker. Suitably buoyed, OPEC catches the market on the hop with a downward adjustment in output. The price mounts a quick recovery with investors scrambling to re-enter the market to the long side – once again bringing $100/barrel prices onto the horizon.

Silver breaks golden shackles to rally 33%

2016 will see a renewed confidence in silver. The political drive towards reducing carbon dioxide emissions by supporting renewable energy will add to increased industrial demand for the metal, given its use in solar cells. As such, silver will rally by a third, leaving other metals behind.

Aggressive Fed sees meltdown in global corporate bonds

Late 2016 will see Fed chief Janet Yellen embark down a hawkish path with a series of aggressive rate hikes, triggering a huge selloff in all major bond markets as yields start to rise. As the portions of bank and broker balance sheets allotted to bond trading and market making have almost disappeared, one of the vital parts of a functioning market is simply not there. This realisation sinks in too late and the entire buy-side flee into a panic selling one-way street, as highly advanced risk models lurch into a symmetric red alert.

El Niño sparks inflation surge

Next year’s El Niño will be the strongest on record and will cause moisture deficits in many areas of south-east Asia and droughts in Australia. Lower yields across agricultural commodities will curb supply at a time when demand is still increasing on the back of global economic expansion. The outcome will be a 40% surge in the Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, adding some much-needed inflationary pressure.

Inequality has last laugh on luxury

Faced with rising inequality and unemployment of over 10%, Europe is considering the introduction of a basic universal income to ensure that all citizens can afford to meet their basic needs. In a more egalitarian society where other values are promoted, demand for luxury goods decreases sharply – the sector collapses.

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People no longer believe in their own country, because they associate it with people who make decisions

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Six deputies applied with administrative penalties in Saeima’s autumn session

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Slower economic growth for Estonia forecast – at 2.2% - for 2017

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Latvian and Lithuanian authorities dismantle two criminal groups

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Estonia to drop special pensions, push forward sweeping pension reforms

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KNAB performs inspection about Jakrins’ approval in the board of Rīgas satiksme

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Chinese GDP up 6.7% in 2016

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Dozens buried in Italy’s avalanche-stricken hotel

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Weekends to experience frost and thaw; drivers urged to be careful

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Logistics Industry Council assesses results of 16+1 summit

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Parliament supports amendments to avoid expensive land-measuring actions

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CP supervisors concerned about Latvijas Gāze’s contract terms

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Germany seeks clarity from Trump’s government, to boost military spending

Berlin has emphasised plans to increase defence spending after facing criticism from upcoming U.S. President Donald Trump on NATO countries not meeting their spending commitments.

Saeima re-elects Elita Krumina as State Auditor

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Saeima supports formation of aircraft passenger data registry to combat terrorism

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Milk retail price in Estonia reaches 55 cents per litre after to price hikes

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Ventspils Freeport carries Lembergs around with luxurious car worth EUR 156,000

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Estonia concludes bilateral defence framework deal with Finland

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Biden: Wealthiest 1% does not pay enough in taxes

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Latvia and Japan sign convention on attraction of foreign investments

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