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Tuesday 20.02.2018 | Name days: Smuidra, Vitauts, Smuidris

Windows to lose its leader position in ten years

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RU

Windows leaving its position as a leader of operating systems will be a decisive factor for the next decade. Although Microsoft will still be the most commonly used platform, ordinary users will fully meet their needs by working in other operating systems that are becoming more and more popular.

Antivirus software companies almost never forecast information threats for a period longer than three to five years; however, one can try to do so by looking at the key changes and challenges in the information security area over the past decade in line with the most important personal computer, mobile phone operating system industry trends, indicate Kaspersky Lab experts, upon revealing their future outlook regarding the cyber world.

The growing number of new operating systems will affect the process of generating new threats – cyber criminals will not manage to successfully write malicious codes to a large number of different platforms, so they will be forced to choose between a wide range of individual users’ operating systems and managed devices, or specialize in Windows. It is clear they will prefer the second option – it will be much harder to earn at the expense of users in 2020, because electronic payment and online banking development trends have already appeared. Such devices will gradually turn into biometric systems – users’ identification and payment protection.

The operating system replacement and their specification will also influence modern virus code writing – a generation change will take place. It is considered majority of cyber criminals formerly working with Windows-powered devices will lose significant amount of work, if they choose not to shift to new operating systems. In order not to lag behind, the old-school representatives will have to make use of the younger generation’s help, as they will be able to write malicious codes for new platforms. However, this situation will not be lasting and it even might end up in physical confrontation between hackers on dividing the spheres of influence.

Most likely, in 2020 cyber crime will be made up of two groups with the first one specializing in attacks on companies (often after request). Industrial espionage, theft of databases, information attacks to damage reputation – all this will be especially demanded in the black market. Hackers and companies’ IT specialists will meet in a battlefield, and, presumably, special cyber services will be involved as well. They will have to operate mainly in a Windows environment, as well as in the newer versions of the traditional UNIX-like operating systems.

The target of the other group will be devices that control existence, movement and activities of a large number of service providers. Hacking into such systems and stealing, the possibility to use various services for free, erasing or changing information about oneself and one’s activities (or contractor’s) – that is what will attract the new generation of hackers and give the opportunity to earn.

Along with the gradual transformation of personal computers (PC), one of the most pressing IT issues – botnets – will also evolve. Networks consisting of zombie stationary computers will be replaced by botnets of wireless devices, and further on they will incorporate wider range of gadgets with the Internet access.

The content of communication devices and technologies will change significantly. The main aim of these changes will be the virtual communication process approximation to reality – in 2020 only old movies will show keyboard use in online communication with friends. This means that spamming business will face the need to seek new means of supplying junk mail to the addressee. The first step in this direction will be spammers’ gradual shift from PCs to mobile devices. Mobile spam volume will increase significantly, while the costs for the Internet data traffic will notably drop due to the intensive development of mobile communications, resulting in less obtrusive adverts.

According to analysts at Kaspersky Lab, the top trends in the past decade (2000-2010) were mobility and miniaturization – personal devices are becoming increasingly smaller and enable access to the Internet from almost any place in the world. Moreover, wireless networks are mainly used. The key tendencies include virus writing transformation into cyber crime, Windows leader position maintenance in PC operating system area, constant leaders change in mobile device platforms and high level of competition. At the moment, the main Internet services are social networks and search engines. Also, the online sales volume is already exceeding the annual budget of some countries.


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