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Monday 16.07.2018 | Name days: Hermīne, Estere
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Bookmakers: Unity will likely win in EP election competition

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN.LV, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUBookmakers predict the competition to be the steepest between Unity and Harmony centre during this week’s European Parliament elections. Unity is said to have a slight advantage, however.

Voter activity is expected to be under or equal to 40%.

Even though Harmony Centre had won the previous Saeima elections with a notable advantage, the party’s current rating is only slightly above that of Unity. On top of that, voters make their choice based on different criteria. According to Betsafe.com, the probability of Unity winning in the elections is 55%. That of Harmony Centre is 45%. Some of the votes that would usually go to Harmony Centre may end up divided among smaller parties aimed at Russian electorate.

‘There are several candidate lists that are aimed at Russian voters. Alfreds Rubiks and Aleksandr Mirsky, for example, will be starting from separate candidate lists. Tatyana Zhdanok also has her own list. It is not likely that these lists will gain seats in the European Parliament, but they may take away valuable votes away from Harmony Centre. The Union of Greens and Farmers will likely compete with the National Alliance for third place. Betsafe.com predicts the victory for UGF with a 75% probability. UGF also has a higher rating. Even though Iveta Grigule’s enormous campaign is controversially viewed, it has made her the most noticeable candidate in these elections. Her chances of entering the European Parliament are viewed as 50%. Other parties have smaller chances of entering Brussels,’ – explains bookmaker Roberts Egle.

The rating of For Latvia’s Development is so low, that not even Andrejs Zgars can save it. Mārtiņš Bondars and the Regional Alliance joined the competition to late to actually impact anything. The aforementioned Russian minority parties will compete with one another over voters left from Harmony Centre. They may have a shot at entering EP if they combine forces, but separately their chances are slim.

According to bookmakers’ predictions, only 40% of voters will participate in EP elections. It is possible, however, that the general activity may be even lower.

Chances of Iveta Grigule, Andrejs Mamikin and Baiba Broka entering the European Parliament are said to be 50%. Competition is expected to be fierce with Artis Pabriks, Krišjānis Kariņš and Inese Vaidere. Bookmakers predict victory for Pabriks, whose chances are said to be 40%. Tatyana Zhdanok and Alfreds Rubiks are unlikely to remain in the European Parliament. The chances of both of them remaining in the EP are said to be 14%.

According to the latest survey by Latvian Facts newspaper, Harmony Centre and Unity are likely to receive the highest amount of support from voters. Results of the survey state that 19.8% of respondents would vote for HC and 13.1% – for Unity. 8.9% of voter would vote for UGF, and 7.6% – for the National Alliance.

Ref: 102.109.109.4232


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