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Ceturtdiena 19.07.2018 | Name days: Jautrīte, Kamila, Digna

Experts: re-recession in USA will critically affect Russia

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The USA recession will affect everyone, and, especially, it will have a crucial impact on Russia, consider experts.

The experts that were interviewed by the newspaper Nezavisimaja gazeta agree with the well-known economist Nouriel Roubini statement that USA is likely to experience another recession. They also note that it would affect the whole world.

The global economy is slowly recovering from the crisis. As it has already been forecast, the recovery is Latin L-shaped, which suggests that  low economic growth indicators remain flat in long-term. It also creates the probability of a re-recession, about which the concerns are completely reasonable, affirms the company 2K Audit – Deloviji konsultaciji/Morison International consultant Andrejs Cernavskis (Andrejs Čerņavskis).

In his opinion, both the global economy and the USA economic model are still too fragile; therefore, the probability of a re-recession remains high. At the same time, the majority of countries demonstrate slight economic growth, and are trying to maintain this tendency.

Even if another crisis strikes, nobody will remain intact, and for Russia the consequences of a reoccurring global economy crisis might turn out disastrous. The drop in the industrial production and in the gross domestic product, the increase of unemployment rate and the budget deficit could return even on a larger scale, Cernavskis explains.

On the other hand, the representative of UFS Investment Company Sergey Gorev holds the view that, after the re-recession occurs, the prices of such products as oil, copper and zinc would fall to the minimum of 2008.

We predict that in the next few years the price of oil will drop to 20 – 25 dollars per barrel. It will also affect investors, who choose to evade the risky market, consequently impacting dollar and euro rate changes. This could lead to the mass bankrupt of financial and other institutions that have huge debts, while some companies might get nationalised, indicates Gorev.


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