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Economists: export keeps showing good growth rate

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Baltic news, News from Latvia, BNN-NEWS.COM, BNN-NEWS.RUExporting sectors show good performance, the record high export is tied to outstanding performance of transit sector in March and April, economists say.

Swedbank senior economist Dainis Stikuts:

Commodities export in March showed good growth in March, compared to a month before (19.6%). However, it was affected by seasonal factors and global price gains working for us. This was determined by food, chemical products and their export. Still, it should be pointed out growing exports in March were boosted by the unexpectedly high wood and wood products export growth.

SEB bank social economy expert Edmunds Rudzītis:

Commodities export broke records in March, exceeding 500 million lats. Compared to March, 2010, exports have surged 38.5% up to 502.9 million lats. However, imports spiked even more – 39%, if comparing to March 2010. Thus, the foreign trade balance reported 274.1 million lats deficit, 32.2 million lats more than in the first three months of 2010.

Export growth rates will slow down in the coming months, but still new monthly records are possible. Still, Latvian records lag behind the ones in the rest of the Baltics with Estonia hitting new export record in March – 1.1 billion euro or 773 million lats. Latvia needs more rapid export growth pace, but it calls for changes in the export structure, because goods with low value added still dominate Latvian exports.

Nordea Bank senior economist Andris Strazds:

According to our estimates, the foreign trade volume grew in March 2011, while the foreign trade balance deteriorated, with imports rising faster than exports. However, overall in this year’s first quarter, the deficit of goods trade balance was by around 137 million lats smaller than in the fourth quarter last year, thus positively impacting the economy.

This March, the export value hit an all time high – 503 million lats. The timber sector exports surged the most – by around 23 million lats, yet a significant increase was observed in other sectors. For instance, in automotive products and food exports. Consequently, in early 2011 the export demand was very substantial to ensure gradual economic recovery. It is expected that in the coming months, the export will remain at high level, however, dropping from the one attained in March.

DnB NORD bank economy expert Peteris Strautins:

Given the overall tendencies and news on a number of projects in export sectors, it was expected export of goods could exceed 500 million lats mark in late 2011, however, it has already taken place – in March.

Undoubtedly, exporting sectors are reporting excellent performance, yet this is not miracle, as it might seem at first sight. Obviously, export record is partially tied to the outstanding results of transit sector in March and April.

Exports are never 100% made up by the value added. Moreover, in Latvia, goods related to logistics, not production and consumption, have always dominated data on foreign trade.

Positive news is value added created in Latvia growing on a monthly basis – these are wood and food products and pharmaceutical products. Despite many analysts claimed there is going to be wood products export ceiling in March, there is yet another record. Poligraphy breaks records as well, as it is a small but rapidly developing sector, exporting more than four million lats for the first time. Pharmaceutical sector hits new records as well, by outdoing all its previous performances by 50%. Textile industry’s 7.7 million lats do not make up an all-time-high, but still – it is the best performance since the crisis.

 


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